Probable Causation

Episode 113: Peter Hull on a jail-based education program called IGNITE

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE.
“'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

Episode 112: Abi Adams on economic abuse and intimate partner violence

Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence.
“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Motherhood and Violence" by Gabriela Deschamps.
"Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India" by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, and Julia Talbot-Jones.
"The Unintended Impacts of an Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda" by Claire Cullen, Arthur Alik-Lagrange, Mũthoni Ngatia, and Julia Vaillant.
"Method Matters: The Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence" by Claire Cullen.
"Violence against Women at Work" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
"The Economic Cost of Rape" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. [Available from the authors.]

Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform (REBROADCAST)

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman.
“Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs.
“Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg.
“Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Episode 111: Roman Rivera on electronic monitoring during the pretrial period

Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
“Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey.
“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.
Probable Causation Episode 79: Jenny Williams.
“The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Offenders and Their Families" by Julien Grenet, Hans Grönqvist, and Susan Niknami.
"Human Decisions and Machine Predictions" by Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan.
"Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth" by Megan T. Stevenson and Christopher Slobogin.
"The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Episode 110: Aurélie Ouss on misaligned incentives in the criminal justice system

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions.
“Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz.
"The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan.
"Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya.
"Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann.
"Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky.
"More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann.
"To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok.
"Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson.
"When Punishment Doesn’t Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich.
"Correctional ‘Free Lunch’? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan.
"Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi.
"Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California’s Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
"Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Episode 109: Anjali Adukia on restorative justice practices in schools

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior.
“From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth.
“Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger.
“School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik.
“The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming.
“Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain.
“Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin.
“Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
"Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph.
“Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST)

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.
"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.
"Parental Incarceration and Children's Educational Attainment" by Carolina Arteaga.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 108: Emma Rackstraw on "Copaganda"

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes.
“When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn
"‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss.
“The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang.
"The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan.
"How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta.
"Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea.
“The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst.
Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves
“Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.
Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
"The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang.
Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang
"Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes.
"Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan
"Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt.
"Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst.
"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
"Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.]
"The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.

Episode 107: David Macdonald on truth-in-sentencing policies

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies.
“Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd.
“Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto.
"Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens.
"How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuziemko.
"Can Parole Reduce Both Time Served and Crime?" by William Arbour & Steeve Marchand.
“Parole Supervision on the Margins” by Michael LaForest-Tucker.
“The effect of parole supervision on recidivism” by Evarn J. Ooi and Joanna Wang.
"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix and Steeve Marchand
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour