Probable Causation

Episode 45: Conrad Miller on racial disparities in sentencing

Conrad Miller talks about how local racial composition affects punishment severity in the criminal justice system.
"Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts" by Benjamin Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions” by Alberto Alesina, Reza Baqir, and William Easterly.
“Reassessing the Racial Divide in Support for Capital Punishment: The Continuing Significance of Race” by James Unnever and Francis Cullen.
“Racial Disparities in Incarceration Increase Acceptance of Punitive Policies” by Rebecca C. Hetey and Jennifer L. Eberhardt.
“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.
Probable Causation Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi
"Local Crime News Bias: Extent, Causes and Consequences" by Jonathan Moreno-Medina.
"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt
"Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences" by M. Marit Rehavi and Sonja B. Starr.
"A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing" by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
"Racial Disparities in the Acquisition of Juvenile Arrest Records" by Steven Raphael and Sandra V. Rozo.
"If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions" by Alex Albright.

Bonus episode: Sarah Brayne on police surveillance

David Eil talks with Sarah Brayne about her book, "Predict and Surveil: Data, Discretion, and the Future of Policing."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi on how local news coverage affects policing

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing.
"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
“Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to Fox News Channel” by Elliott Ash and Michael Poyker.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and sentencing" by Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Phillippe.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar A. Ba and Roman Rivera.
“Intensified Scrutiny and Bureaucratic Effort: Evidence from Policing After High-Profile, Officer-Involved Fatalities” by Deepak Premkumar.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of ‘Pattern-or Practice’ Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi and Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers.
"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime (REBROADCAST)

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019.
"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.
"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.
"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.
"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.
"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.
"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.
"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box (REBROADCAST)

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.
"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao
"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose
"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie
"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger
"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave
"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung
"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio
"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen
"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Bonus episode: David Skarbek on the social order of prisons

David Eil talks with David Skarbek about his book, "The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life Behind Bars Varies Around the World."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 42: Andrea Velasquez on how crime affects risk aversion

Andrea Velásquez talks about how exposure to violent crime affects risk aversion.
"Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War" by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya.
“Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger.
“Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?” by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel.
“Beyond Valence: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgement and Choice” by Jennifer Lerner and Dacher Keltner.
“The Economic Burden of Crime: Evidence from Mexico” by Andrea Velásquez.
“Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi” by Maarten J. Voors, Eleonora E.M. Nillesen, Philip Verwimp, Erwin H. Bulte, Robert Lensink, and Daan P. Van Soest.
“The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment” by Pamela Jakiela and Owen Ozier.
“Security, Drugs, and Violence in Mexico: A Survey” by Eduardo Guerrero-Gutiérrez.
“Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis through 2011” by Cory Molzahn, Viridiana Ríos, and David A. Shirk.
“Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War” by Melissa Dell.
“Illegal Drug Markets and Violence in Mexico: The Causes beyond Calderón” by Juan Castillo, Daniel Mejía, and Pascual Restrepo.
Votes, Drugs, and Violence: The Political Logic of Criminal Wars in Mexico. by Sandra Ley and Guillermo Trejo.
"Knowing Where and How Criminal Organizations Operate Using Web Content" by Michele Coscia and Viridiana Ríos.
“Risk Preferences in Households and Families” by Amar Hamoudi.
"Conflict and Risky Health Behavior: Evidence from Mexico's Drug War" by Shanthi Manian.
"Health Seeking amid Violence: Evidence from the Philippines" by Teresa Molina.

Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist on the health effects of prison

Matthew Lindquist talks about the health effects of prison.
"The Health Effects of Prison" by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Dose-Response of Time Served in Prison on Mortality: New York State, 1989-2003” by Evelyn Patterson.
"The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel Bondurant, Jason Lindo, and Isaac Swensen.
“New Evidence that Access to Health Care Reduces Crime” by Jennifer Doleac.
“Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
“The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-waiver Expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason Hockenberry, and Janet Cummings.

Episode 40: Emily Leslie on COVID and domestic violence

Emily Leslie talks about how social distancing due to COVID-19 has affected domestic violence.
"Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior” by David Card and Gordon Dahl.
"COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence" by Lindsey Rose Bullinger, Jillian B. Carr, and Analisa Packham.
"The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on Domestic Violence" by Sarath Sanga and Justin McCrary.
"Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic" by Saravana Ravindran and Manisha Shah.
"Hang Up on Stereotypes: Domestic Violence and Anti-Abuse Helpline Campaign" by Marco Colagrossi, Claudio Deiana, Andrea Geraci, and Ludovica Giua.