Probable Causation

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird.
“Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming).
“Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti.
“Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos.
“Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía.
“Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler.
“Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.).
“Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo.
“Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew.
“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio.
“Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi.

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing.
"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt.
“COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
“Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst.
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello.
“The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller.
“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes.
“Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Impact the Children?” by Stephen B. Billings.
“The Impact of Maternal Imprisonment on Children’s Probability of Grade Retention” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Impact of Maternal Incarceration on Children’s Educational Achievement: Results from Chicago Public Schools” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. [WORKING PAPER]
“The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration” by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. [WORKING PAPER]
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally.
“Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen.
“Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths” by Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
“Drug Dealing and Legitimate Self-Employment” by Robert W. Fairlie.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
“The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico” by Melissa Dell, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Kensuke Teshima.
“Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts” by Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi, and Robert Witt.

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century.
"Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
 
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement” by Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Closing the Gap? The Effect of Private Philanthropy on the Provision of African-American Schooling in the U.S. South” by Celeste Carruthers and Marianne Wanamaker.
"Moving North and into jail? The great migration and black incarceration" by Katherine Eriksson.
"Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System" by Michael Poyker.
"Prisons and Profits: Understanding The Political Economy of Incarceration in the Postbellum American South" by Susanne Schwarz.
"The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith.

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses.
"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan.
Probable Causation Episode 46: Anna Harvey.
“Punishment Without Crime: How Our Massive Misdemeanor System Traps the Innocent and Makes America More Unequal” by Alexandra Natapoff.
"The Scale of Misdemeanor Justice" by Megan Stevenson and Sandra Mayson.
"Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work. This episode was first posted in June 2019.
“Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
"Banning the purchase of prostitution increases rape: Evidence from Sweden" by Riccardo Ciacci.
"Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health"  by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah.
"Street Prostitution Zones and Crime"  by Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano, and Bas van der Klaauw.
“Craigslist Reduced Violence Against Women” by Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo, and John Tripp.
“Income, Income Shocks, and Transactional Sex” by Katherine LoPiccalo, Jonathan Robinson, and Ethan Yeh.
“Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya” by Jonathan Robinson and Ethan Yeh.