Probable Causation

Episode 34: David Phillips on emergency financial assistance

David Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime.
"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much" by Sendhil Mullainathan.
"Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City" by Matthew Desmond.
"Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior" by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl.
"Welfare Payments and Crime" by C. Fritz Foley.
"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
Episode 28 of Probable Causation: Jillian Carr.
"The impact of homelessness prevention programs on homelessness" by William N. Evans, James X. Sullivan, and Melanie Wallskog.
"SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
"The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street.
“Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. (Draft available from the authors upon request.)
"Sheltering in Place and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Calls for Service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson.

Episode 33: Jason Lindo on violent media content

Jason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime.
"Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content" by Jason M. Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen, and Glen R. Waddell.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Violent Video Games Stress People Out and Make Them More Aggressive” by Hasan Youssef, Laurent Bègue, and Brad J. Bushman.
“Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?” by Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna.
“Violent Video Games and Violent Crime” by Scott Cunningham, Benjamin Engelstätter, and Michael R. Ward.
“Violent Video Games and Real-World Violence: Rhetoric Versus Data” by P.M. Markey, C.N. Markey, and J.E. French.
“Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street” by Melissa S. Kearney and Philip Levine.
“Media Role Models and Black Educational Attainment: Evidence from The Cosby Show” by Kirsten Cornelson.

Episode 32: Sarit Weisburd on police presence and crime

Sarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime.
"Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention" by Sarit Weisburd.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment” by George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, Charles E. Brown.
“General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Lawrence W. Sherman and David Weisburd.
“Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment” by Anthony Braga, David Weisburd, Elin Waring, Lorraine Green Mazerolle, William Spellman, and Francis Gajewski.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven D. Levitt.
“COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
“Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
“Terror and the Costs of Crime” by Eric D. Gould and Guy Stecklov.
“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2004 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, and Robert Witt.
“Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Episode 19: Jeremy West on racial bias in police investigations (REBROADCAST)

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. This episode was first posted in December 2019.
"Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd.
"An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang.
"A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics and Brian Knight
"Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness" by Jeffrey Grogger & Greg Ridgeway
"How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling" by William Horrace and Shawn Rohlin.
"Endogenous Driving Behavior in Veil of Darkness Tests for Racial Profiling" by Jesse Kalinowski, Stephen L. Ross, and Matthew B. Ross.
"Learning the ropes: General experience, task-Specific experience, and the output of police officers" by Gregory DeAngelo and Emily G. Owens.
"Police Officer Experience and Racial Bias in Traffic Stops" by William Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, and Shawn Rohlin.
"Learning by Doing in Law Enforcement" by Jeremy West.
"Dirty Business: Principal-Agent Problems in Hazardous Waste Remediation" by Justin Marion and Jeremy West.
"Free at Last? Judicial Discretion and Racial Disparities in Federal Sentencing" by Crystal S. Yang.

Episode 10: Emily Weisburst on police officers in schools (REBROADCAST)

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools. This episode was first posted in August 2019.
"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.
"Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.
"Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.
"Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.
"Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.
“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
 
 

Episode 30: Brittany Street on economic opportunity and crime

Brittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior.
"The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens.
“Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays” by R. Kaj Gittings and Travis Roach.
“Moving to Economic Opportunity: The Migration Response to the Fracking Boom” by Riley Wilson.
“There Will be Blood: Crime Rates in Shale-Rich US Counties” by Alexander James and Brock Smith.
“Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. [draft available upon request].
“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.

Episode 29: Patricio Dominguez on the interactions of offenders and victims

Patricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study.
"How Offenders and Victims Interact: A Case-study from a Public Transportation Reform" by Patricio Domínguez.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings Concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment” by Philip Cook.
“The Clearance Rate as a Measure of Criminal Justice System Effectiveness” by Philip Cook.
“The Demand and Supply of Criminal Opportunities” by Philip Cook.
“Crime Economics in its Fifth Decade” by Philip Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
“Situational Crime Prevention: Its Theoretical Basis and Practical Scope” by Ronald Clarke.
“Situational Crime Prevention” by Ronald Clarke.
“Modeling Offenders’ Decisions: A Framework for Research and Policy” by Ronald Clarke and Derek Cornish.
“Public Safety Through Private Action: An Economic Assessment of BIDS” by Philip Cook and John MacDonald.
“Does Regulation of Built-in Security Reduce Crime? Evidence from a Natural Experiment” by Ben Vollaard and Jan C. van Ours.
“Measuring positive externalities from unobservable victim precaution: an empirical analysis of Lojack” by Ian Ayres and Steven D Levitt.
“Deterrence and Geographical Externalities in Auto Theft” by Marco Gonzalez-Navarro.
"Homicide in Black and White" by Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi.
"Racial Stereotypes and Robbery" by Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi.
“Stand Your Ground Laws, Homicides, and Injuries” by Chandler McClellan and Erdal Tekin.
“Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine” by Cheng Cheng and Mark Hoekstra.
"Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack" by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
"Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks" by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, and Robert Witt.
"Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime" by Jonathan Klick and Alexander Tabarrok.
“Crime and Public transport” by Martha J. Smith and Ronald V. Clarke
“How Much Should we Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?” by Marianne Bertrand, Esther Duflo, and Sendhil Mullainathan.
“Robbery” by Philip Cook.
“Street Light Outages, Public Safety and Crime Displacement: Evidence from Chicago” by Aaron Chalfin, Jacob Kaplan, and Michael LaForest.

Episode 28: Jillian Carr on SNAP benefit distribution and crime

Jillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime.
"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“One More Saturday Night: Food Stamp Timing and Monthly Consumption Patterns” by Elena Castellari, Chad Cotti, John M. Gordanier, and Orgul D. Ozturk.
“Welfare Payments and Crime” by C. Fritz Foley.
“The Short-Term Mortality Consequences of Income Receipt” by William N. Evans and Timothy J. Moore.
“The Effects of Government Transfers on Monthly Cycles in Drug Abuse, Hospitalization and Mortality” by Carlos Dobkin and Steven L. Puller.
“Eat (and Drink) Better Tonight: Food Stamp Benefit Timing and Drunk Driving Fatalities” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence” by Jillian Carr and Analisa Packham.
“Fighting Crime from the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith.
“Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism” by Cody Tuttle.
“Hunger Pains? SNAP Timing and Emergency Room Visits” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“When Does it Count? The Timing of Food Stamp Receipt and Educational Performance” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“Hungry for Success: SNAP Timing, High-Stakes Testing Performance, and College Attendance” by Timothy Bond, Jillian Carr, Analisa Packham, and Jonathan Smith.

Episode 27: Benjamin Hansen on marijuana legalization

Benjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug.
"Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities” by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard Drug Use?” by Yu-Wei Luke Chu.
“The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Adolescent and Adult Use of Marijuana, Alcohol, and Other Substances” by Janet Cummings, Jason Hockenberry, and Hefei Wen.
“The Effect of Alcohol Availability on Marijuana Use: Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age” by Benjamin Crost and Santiago Guerrero.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Association of Marijuana Laws with Teen Marijuana Use: New Estimates from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveys” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, Daniel I. Rees, and Joseph J. Sabia.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Adolescent Marijuana Use in the USA from 1991 to 2014: Results from Annual, Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys” by Magdalena Cerdá, Tianshu Feng, Sandro Galea, Deborah S Hasin, Katherine M Keyes, Patrick M O'Malley, Rosalie Pacula, John Schulenberg, and Melanie Wall.
“The Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Dispensing on Opioid Mortality” by Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan W. Chan, and Matthew Flyr.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?” by Mireille Jacobson, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, and David Powell. 
“Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime.” by Evelina Gavrilova, Takuma Kamada, and Floris Zoutman.
“Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet” by Austan Goolsbee, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Joel Slemrod.
“Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in NYC.” by Howard Chernick and David Merriman.
“The Micro-Geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago.” by David Merriman.
“Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco.” by Keaton Miller and Boyoung Seo.
“Are Our Hopes Too High? Testing Cannabis Legalization’s Potential to Reduce Criminalization” by Ed Rubin.
“Officer Discretion in Vehicle Stops and Searches.” by Annalise Helm and Benjamin Hansen [draft in preparation].
“Regressive Sin Taxes with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax." by Hunt Alcott, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky.