Probable Causation

Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.
“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
 
 

Episode 30: Brittany Street on economic opportunity and crime

Brittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior.
"The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens.
“Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays” by R. Kaj Gittings and Travis Roach.
“Moving to Economic Opportunity: The Migration Response to the Fracking Boom” by Riley Wilson.
“There Will be Blood: Crime Rates in Shale-Rich US Counties” by Alexander James and Brock Smith.
“Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. [draft available upon request].
“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.

Episode 29: Patricio Dominguez on the interactions of offenders and victims

Patricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study.
"How Offenders and Victims Interact: A Case-study from a Public Transportation Reform" by Patricio Domínguez.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings Concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment” by Philip Cook.
“The Clearance Rate as a Measure of Criminal Justice System Effectiveness” by Philip Cook.
“The Demand and Supply of Criminal Opportunities” by Philip Cook.
“Crime Economics in its Fifth Decade” by Philip Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
“Situational Crime Prevention: Its Theoretical Basis and Practical Scope” by Ronald Clarke.
“Situational Crime Prevention” by Ronald Clarke.
“Modeling Offenders’ Decisions: A Framework for Research and Policy” by Ronald Clarke and Derek Cornish.
“Public Safety Through Private Action: An Economic Assessment of BIDS” by Philip Cook and John MacDonald.
“Does Regulation of Built-in Security Reduce Crime? Evidence from a Natural Experiment” by Ben Vollaard and Jan C. van Ours.
“Measuring positive externalities from unobservable victim precaution: an empirical analysis of Lojack” by Ian Ayres and Steven D Levitt.
“Deterrence and Geographical Externalities in Auto Theft” by Marco Gonzalez-Navarro.
"Homicide in Black and White" by Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi.
"Racial Stereotypes and Robbery" by Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi.
“Stand Your Ground Laws, Homicides, and Injuries” by Chandler McClellan and Erdal Tekin.
“Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine” by Cheng Cheng and Mark Hoekstra.
"Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack" by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
"Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks" by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, and Robert Witt.
"Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime" by Jonathan Klick and Alexander Tabarrok.
“Crime and Public transport” by Martha J. Smith and Ronald V. Clarke
“How Much Should we Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?” by Marianne Bertrand, Esther Duflo, and Sendhil Mullainathan.
“Robbery” by Philip Cook.
“Street Light Outages, Public Safety and Crime Displacement: Evidence from Chicago” by Aaron Chalfin, Jacob Kaplan, and Michael LaForest.

Episode 28: Jillian Carr on SNAP benefit distribution and crime

Jillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime.
"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“One More Saturday Night: Food Stamp Timing and Monthly Consumption Patterns” by Elena Castellari, Chad Cotti, John M. Gordanier, and Orgul D. Ozturk.
“Welfare Payments and Crime” by C. Fritz Foley.
“The Short-Term Mortality Consequences of Income Receipt” by William N. Evans and Timothy J. Moore.
“The Effects of Government Transfers on Monthly Cycles in Drug Abuse, Hospitalization and Mortality” by Carlos Dobkin and Steven L. Puller.
“Eat (and Drink) Better Tonight: Food Stamp Benefit Timing and Drunk Driving Fatalities” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence” by Jillian Carr and Analisa Packham.
“Fighting Crime from the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith.
“Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism” by Cody Tuttle.
“Hunger Pains? SNAP Timing and Emergency Room Visits” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“When Does it Count? The Timing of Food Stamp Receipt and Educational Performance” by Chad Cotti, John Gordanier, and Orgul Ozturk.
“Hungry for Success: SNAP Timing, High-Stakes Testing Performance, and College Attendance” by Timothy Bond, Jillian Carr, Analisa Packham, and Jonathan Smith.

Episode 27: Benjamin Hansen on marijuana legalization

Benjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug.
"Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities” by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard Drug Use?” by Yu-Wei Luke Chu.
“The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Adolescent and Adult Use of Marijuana, Alcohol, and Other Substances” by Janet Cummings, Jason Hockenberry, and Hefei Wen.
“The Effect of Alcohol Availability on Marijuana Use: Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age” by Benjamin Crost and Santiago Guerrero.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Association of Marijuana Laws with Teen Marijuana Use: New Estimates from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveys” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, Daniel I. Rees, and Joseph J. Sabia.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Adolescent Marijuana Use in the USA from 1991 to 2014: Results from Annual, Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys” by Magdalena Cerdá, Tianshu Feng, Sandro Galea, Deborah S Hasin, Katherine M Keyes, Patrick M O'Malley, Rosalie Pacula, John Schulenberg, and Melanie Wall.
“The Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Dispensing on Opioid Mortality” by Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan W. Chan, and Matthew Flyr.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?” by Mireille Jacobson, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, and David Powell. 
“Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime.” by Evelina Gavrilova, Takuma Kamada, and Floris Zoutman.
“Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet” by Austan Goolsbee, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Joel Slemrod.
“Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in NYC.” by Howard Chernick and David Merriman.
“The Micro-Geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago.” by David Merriman.
“Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco.” by Keaton Miller and Boyoung Seo.
“Are Our Hopes Too High? Testing Cannabis Legalization’s Potential to Reduce Criminalization” by Ed Rubin.
“Officer Discretion in Vehicle Stops and Searches.” by Annalise Helm and Benjamin Hansen [draft in preparation].
“Regressive Sin Taxes with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax." by Hunt Alcott, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky.

Episode 26: Kirabo Jackson on single-sex education

Kirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood.
"Can Introducing Single-Sex Education into Low-Performing Schools Improve Academics, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood" by C. Kirabo Jackson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Single-Sex Schools, Student Achievement, and Course Selection: Evidence from Rule-Based Student Assignments in Trinidad and Tobago" by C. Kirabo Jackson.
"Causal Effects of Single-Sex Schools on College Entrance Exams and College Attendance: Random Assignment in Seoul High Schools" by Hyunjoon Park, Jere R. Behrman, and Jaesung Choi.
"Why Are Single-Sex Schools Successful?" by Christian Dustmann, Hyejin Ku, and Do Won Kwak.
"All or Nothing? The Impact of School and Classroom Gender Composition on Effort and Academic Achievement" by Soohyung Lee, Lesley J. Turner, Seokjin Woo, and Kyunghee Lim.
"What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output" by Diether Beuermann, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
"School Effects on Socio-Emotional Development, School-Based Arrests, and Educational Attainment" by C. Kirabo Jackson, Shanette C. Porter, John Q. Easton, Alyssa Blanchard, and Sebastián Kiguel.

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Bonus episode: Adam Gelb on the Council on Criminal Justice

Adam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.

Episode 24: Logan Lee on residential housing programs

Logan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism.
"Halfway Home? Residential Housing and Reincarceration" by Logan M. Lee.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"From Locked Up to Locked Out: Access to Affordable Rental Housing and Criminal Recidivism" by Timothy Young.
"Stress and Hardship After Prison" by Bruce Western, Anthony A. Braga, Jaclyn Davis, and Catherine Sirois.
"Stigma, hHousing and Identity After Prison" by Danya E. Keene, Amy B. Smoyer, and Kim M. Blankenship.
"Work Release and Recidivism: An Empirical Evaluation of a Social Policy" by Gordon P. Waldo and Theodore G. Chiricos.
"Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model" by Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff, and Anaïs Henneguelle.

Bonus episode: Rachel Barkow

We've unlocked this bonus episode, originally available only to Patreon subscribers: David Eil interviews Rachel Barkow about her book, Prisoners of Politics.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!