Probable Causation

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime.
"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 12: Michael Lovenheim on grade retention and students' criminal activity

Michael Lovenheim talks about how grade retention affects students' later criminal activity.
"The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence From a Test-Based Promotion Policy" by Ozkan Eren, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Naci H. Mocan.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“In school and out of trouble: The minimum dropout age and juvenile crime” by D. Mark Anderson.
“The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti.
“Priceless: The nonpecuniary benefits of schooling” by Philip Oreopolous and Kjell G. Salvanes.
“The crime reducing effect of education” by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Sunčica Vujić.
“Compulsory education and the benefits of schooling” by Melvin Stephens Jr.and Dou-Yan Yang.
“Better schools, less crime?” by David Deming.
“The effect of school choice on participants: Evidence from randomized lotteries” by Julie Berry Cullen, Brian A. Jacob, and Steven Levitt.
“The effect of grade retention on high school completion” by Brian A. Jacob and Lars Lefgren.
“How the timing of grade retention affects outcomes: Identification and estimation of time-varying treatment effects” by Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Salvador Navarro, and Yuya Takahashi.
“Grade retention, postsecondary education, and public aid receipt” by Suh-Ruu Ou and Arthur J. Reynolds.
“The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida” by Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters.
“Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime” by Ozkan Eren, Briggs Depew, and Stephen Barnes.
“Breaking bad: Mechanisms of social influence and the path to criminality in juvenile jails” by Megan Stevenson.

Episode 11: Steven Raphael on sentencing reform in California

Steven Raphael talks about how California's sentencing reform policies have affected incarceration and crime rates in the state.
"The effect of sentencing reform on crime rates: Evidence from California’s Proposition 47" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Public Safety Realignment and Crime Rates in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
"Is Public Safety Realignment Reducing Recidivism in California?" by Magnus Lofstrom, Steven Raphael, and Ryken Gratett.
"Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
“Prison Downsizing and Public Safety" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
“Incarceration and Incapacitation: Evidence from the 2006 Italian Collective Pardon” by Paolo Buonanno and Steven Raphael. 
“Can We Downsize our Prisons and Jails without Compromising Public Safety? Findings from California’s Prop 47” by Bradley Bartos and Charis E. Kubrin.
"An Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Case Dispositions and Sentencing Outcomes for Criminal Cases Presented to and Processed by the Office of the San Francisco District Attorney" by John MacDonald & Steven Raphael.

Episode 10: Emily Weisburst on police officers in schools

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools.
"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.
"Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.
"Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.
"Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.
"Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Episode 9: Mike Mueller-Smith on the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS)

Mike Mueller-Smith talks about the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) -- a new source of administrative data -- and how criminal justice policy affects economic and social disparities in the United States.
"Criminal Justice in the US and Economic Inequality" by Michael G. Mueller-Smith and Keith Finlay. 
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Correctional Populations in the United States, 2016" by Danielle Kaeble and Mary Cowhig.
"Mass Imprisonment and the Life Course: Race and Class Inequality in U.S. Incarceration" by Becky Pettit and Bruce Western.
"The growth, scope, and spatial distribution of people with felony records in the united states, 1948–2010" by Sarah K. S. Shannon, Christopher Uggen, Jason Schnittker, Melissa Thompson, Sara Wakefield, and Michael Massoglia.
"Fathers Behind Bars: The Impact of Incarceration on Family Formation" by Bruce Western and Sara McLanahan.
"The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences" –National Research Council, Consensus Study Report.
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
"The employability of ex-offenders: a field experiment in the Swedish labor market" by
Ali M. Ahmed and Elisabeth Lång.
"The Edge of Stigma: An Experimental Audit of the Effects of Low-Level Criminal Records on Employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham.

Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies.
RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.
"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao
"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose
"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie
"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger
"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave
"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung
"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio
"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen
"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.
"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request.
"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.
"The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 6: Manisha Shah on criminalizing sex work

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work.
“Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
"Banning the purchase of prostitution increases rape: Evidence from Sweden" by Riccardo Ciacci.
"Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health"  by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah.
"Street Prostitution Zones and Crime"  by Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano, and Bas van der Klaauw.
“Craigslist Reduced Violence Against Women” by Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo, and John Tripp.
“Income, Income Shocks, and Transactional Sex” by Katherine LoPiccalo, Jonathan Robinson, and Ethan Yeh.
“Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya” by Jonathan Robinson and Ethan Yeh.

Episode 5: Kevin Schnepel on diversion from felony conviction

Kevin Schnepel talks about the effects of diversion from a felony conviction on long-run outcomes for criminal defendants.
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Juvenile incarceration, human capital, and future crime: Evidence from randomly assigned judges” by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.
“Incarceration, recidivism and employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration” by Michael Mueller-Smith 
“The labeling of convicted felons and its consequences for recidivism” by Ted Chiricos, Kelle Barrick, William Bales, and Stephanie Bontrager.“The mark of a criminal record” by Devah Pager.
“Marked: Race, crime, and finding work in an era of mass incarceration” by Devah Pager.
“Discrimination in a low-wage labor market a field experiment” by Devah Pager, Bart Bonikowski, and Bruce Western.
“The Unintended Consequences of 'Ban the Box': Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Expungement of Criminal Convictions: An Empirical Study” by J.J. Prescott and Sonja B. Starr.
“Unmarked? Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes” by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein.