Probable Causation

Benjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug.
"Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities” by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard Drug Use?” by Yu-Wei Luke Chu.
“The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Adolescent and Adult Use of Marijuana, Alcohol, and Other Substances” by Janet Cummings, Jason Hockenberry, and Hefei Wen.
“The Effect of Alcohol Availability on Marijuana Use: Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age” by Benjamin Crost and Santiago Guerrero.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees.
“Association of Marijuana Laws with Teen Marijuana Use: New Estimates from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveys” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, Daniel I. Rees, and Joseph J. Sabia.
“Medical Marijuana Laws and Adolescent Marijuana Use in the USA from 1991 to 2014: Results from Annual, Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys” by Magdalena Cerdá, Tianshu Feng, Sandro Galea, Deborah S Hasin, Katherine M Keyes, Patrick M O'Malley, Rosalie Pacula, John Schulenberg, and Melanie Wall.
“The Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Dispensing on Opioid Mortality” by Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan W. Chan, and Matthew Flyr.
“Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?” by Mireille Jacobson, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, and David Powell. 
“Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime.” by Evelina Gavrilova, Takuma Kamada, and Floris Zoutman.
“Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet” by Austan Goolsbee, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Joel Slemrod.
“Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in NYC.” by Howard Chernick and David Merriman.
“The Micro-Geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago” by David Merriman.
“Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco.” by Keaton Miller and Boyoung Seo.
“Are Our Hopes Too High? Testing Cannabis Legalization’s Potential to Reduce Criminalization” by Ed Rubin.
“Officer Discretion in Vehicle Stops and Searches.” by Annalise Helm and Benjamin Hansen [draft in preparation].
“Regressive Sin Taxes with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax." by Hunt Alcott, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky.

Kirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood.
"Can Introducing Single-Sex Education into Low-Performing Schools Improve Academics, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood" by C. Kirabo Jackson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Single-Sex Schools, Student Achievement, and Course Selection: Evidence from Rule-Based Student Assignments in Trinidad and Tobago" by C. Kirabo Jackson.
"Causal Effects of Single-Sex Schools on College Entrance Exams and College Attendance: Random Assignment in Seoul High Schools" by Hyunjoon Park, Jere R. Behrman, and Jaesung Choi.
"Why Are Single-Sex Schools Successful?" by Christian Dustmann, Hyejin Ku, and Do Won Kwak.
"All or Nothing? The Impact of School and Classroom Gender Composition on Effort and Academic Achievement" by Soohyung Lee, Lesley J. Turner, Seokjin Woo, and Kyunghee Lim.
"What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output" by Diether Beuermann, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
"School Effects on Socio-Emotional Development, School-Based Arrests, and Educational Attainment" by C. Kirabo Jackson, Shanette C. Porter, John Q. Easton, Alyssa Blanchard, and Sebastián Kiguel.

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Adam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.

Logan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism.
"Halfway Home? Residential Housing and Reincarceration" by Logan M. Lee.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"From Locked Up to Locked Out: Access to Affordable Rental Housing and Criminal Recidivism" by Timothy Young.
"Stress and Hardship After Prison" by Bruce Western, Anthony A. Braga, Jaclyn Davis, and Catherine Sirois.
"Stigma, hHousing and Identity After Prison" by Danya E. Keene, Amy B. Smoyer, and Kim M. Blankenship.
"Work Release and Recidivism: An Empirical Evaluation of a Social Policy" by Gordon P. Waldo and Theodore G. Chiricos.
"Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model" by Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff, and Anaïs Henneguelle.

We've unlocked this bonus episode, originally available only to Patreon subscribers: David Eil interviews Rachel Barkow about her book, Prisoners of Politics.
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Lelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador.
"Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence from El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte and Pablo Egana-delSol
"Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte [Draft available from the author upon request.]
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"After-School Programs for Delinquency Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis" by Sema A. Taheri and Brandon C. Welsh.
"What Works to Prevent Violence Among Youth? A White Paper on Youth Violence, Crime Prevention, and the Mexican Context" by Thomas Abt, Chris Blattman, Beatriz Magaloni, and Santiago Tobon.
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia" by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
"Peer Effects, Teacher Incentives, and the Impact of Tracking: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Kenya" by Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, and Michael Kremer
“The Benefits of Diversity: Peer Effects in an Adult Training Program in Chile” by Jeanne Lafortune, Marcela Perticará, and José Tessada.
"Predicting and Preventing Shootings among At-Risk Youth" by Dana Chandler, Steven D. Levitt, and John A. List.
"Partners in Crime" by Stephen Billings, David Deming, and Stephen L. Ross.

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook.
"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin.
"What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller
"More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries.
"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.
The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.
Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.
Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan.
Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew.
The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr.
The Impact of Megan’s Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by
Grant Duwe and William Donnay.
The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman.
Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair.
Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba.
Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman.
Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba.
Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall.
A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan.
Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia.
Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin.
Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy.
“Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris.
Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings.
A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba.
The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker.
Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz.
Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba
An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.