Probable Causation

Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Women’s Access to the Labour Market and Domestic Violence: Causal Evidence from Mexico” by Manuel Davila.
“Family Types and Intimate Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective” by Ana Tur-Prats.
Episode 17 of Probable Causation: Ana Tur-Prats.
“A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries” by Ana Maria Buller, Amber Peterman, Meghan Ranganathan, Alexandra Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, and Lori Heise.
“Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries” by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez, and Claire Thibout.
“The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia” by Christopher Blattman and Stefan Dercon.
“Statistical Analysis of List Experiments” by Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai.
“The Comparative Impact of Cash Transfer and Psychotherapy on Psychological and Economic Well-being” by Johannes Haushofer, Robert Mudida, and Jeremy Shapiro.
“Backlash: Female Economic Empowerment and Domestic Violence” by Sanna Bergvall.
“Paid Work for Women and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the Rwanda Coffee Mills” by Deniz Sanin.
“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Draft available from the authors upon request].
Episode 85 of Probable Causation: Sofia Amaral.
“Cultural Distance and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Eleonora Guarnieri and Ana Tur-Prats.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
Episode 87 of Probable Causation: Emily Nix

Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs.
“Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely Unauthorized Parents” by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Esther Arenas-Arroyo, and Almudena Sevilla.
“Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and Personal Income Taxes After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” by Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis.
“Inside the Refrigerator: Immigration Enforcement and Chilling in Immigrant Medicaid Participation” by Tara Watson.
“Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs” by George Borjas and Lynette Hilton.
“Network Effects and Welfare Cultures” by Marianne Bertrand, Erzo Luttmer, and Sendhil Mullainathan.
“Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census” by J. David Brown, Misty Heggeness, Suzanne Dorinski, and Lawrence Warren.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
“Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime? Evidence from Secure Communities” by Thomas J. Miles and Adam B. Cox.
“Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: Household Services and High-Educated Mothers' Work” by Chloe East and Andrea Velasquez.
“The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement” by Chloe East, Philip Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velasquez.
“Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety” by Felipe Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily Weisburst. [Draft available from the authors].
“Immigration Enforcement and the Institutionalization of Elderly Americans” by Abdulmohsen Almuhaisen, Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, and Delia Furtado. [Draft available from the authors]
“Take-up and Targeting: Experimental Evidence from SNAP” by Amy Finkelstein and Matthew J. Notowidigdo.
“Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Subsidized Health Insurance Exchange” by Mark Shepard and Myles Wagner.
 

Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago

Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago.
“Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sciatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi.
“Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing” by Steven Levitt and Sudhir Allude Venkatesh.
“Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. [Unpublished Manuscript]
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City” by Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest, and Jacob Kaplan.
“The Effects of Civil Gang Injunctions on Reported Violent Crime: Evidence from Los Angeles County” by Jeffrey Grogger.
“Student Exposure to Proactive Policing: Heterogenous Effects of Los Angeles Gang Injunctions” by Jessica Wagner. [Available from the author upon request]

Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force

Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 38: CarlyWill Sloan.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer Jr.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force: A Comment” by Steven N. Durlauf and James J. Heckman.
“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” By Barak Ariel, Alex Sutherland, Darren Penstock, Josh Young, Paul Drove, Jayne Sykes, Simon Megicks, and Ryan Henderson.
“The “Less-Than-Lethal Weapons Effect”- Introducing TASERs to Routine Operations in England and Wales: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Barak Ariel, David Lawes, Cristobal Weinborn, Ron Henry, Kevin Chen, and Hagit Brants Sabo.
“American Policing and the Danger Imperative” by Michael Sierra-Arevalo.
“Racial Profiling and Use of Force in Police Stops: How Local Events Trigger Periods of Increased Discrimination” by Joscha Legewie.
“Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger.
“Exposure to Violence Predicts Impulsivity in Time Preferences: Evidence from The Democratic Republic of Congo” by Alex Imas, Michael Kuhn, and Vera Mironova. [Working Paper].
“Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya.
“Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War” by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez.
Probable Causation Episode 42: Andrea Velásquez.
“Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violence Behavior” by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl.
“Frustration, Euphoria, and Violent Crime” by Ignacio Munyo and Martin A. Rossi.
“Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles” by Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan.
“Nonfatal Injuries to Law Enforcement Officers: A Rise in Assaults” by Hope M. Tiesman, Melody Gwilliam, Srinivas Konda, Jeff Rojek, and Suzanne Marsh.
“Emotional Reactivity and Police Expertise in Use-of-Force Decision-Making” by Vivian Ta, Brian Lande, and Joel Suss.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests?: The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Conclaves, and Emily Weisburst.
“The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrests Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera.
“Police Officer Assignment and Neighborhood Crime” by Bocar Ba, Patrick Bayer, Nayoung Rim, Roman Rivera, and Modibo Sidibé.
“Strengthening Police Oversight: Impacts of Misconduct Investigators on Police Officer Behavior” by Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim.
“Does Black and Blue Matter? An Experimental Investigation of Race and Perceptions of Police, and Legal Compliance” by Mackenzie Alston and Emily Owens.
“High-Frequency Location Data Shows that Race Affects the Likelihood of Being Stopped and Fined for Speeding” by Pradhi Aggarwal, Alec Brandon, Ariel Goldszmidt, Justin Holz, John A. List, Ian Muir, Greg Sun, and Thomas Yu.

Episode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in Norway

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway.
“Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Mandeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

Bonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconduct

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
 

Episode 91: Allison Harris on registering returning citizens to vote

Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions.
"Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Bigger, and David J. Hendry.
“The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa” by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse.
“Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs” by Jonathan David and Sara B. Heller.
"Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests" by Stefan Wager and Susan Athey.
“Civic Responses to Police Violence” by Desmond And and John Tebes. [Working Paper].
“Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race” by Hannah L. Walker.
Bonus Episode 10 of Probable Causation: Hannah Walker.

Episode 90: Matthew Ross on police field training

Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force.
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. [American Economic Review forthcoming].
“Randomized Controlled Trial of Social Interaction Police Training” by Kyle McLean, Scott E. Wolfe, Jeff Rojek, Geoffrey P. Alpert, and Michael R. Smith.
“Is Police Training an Effective Intervention for Addressing Disparities?” by Hunter Johnson, Stephen L. Ross, and Steve Mello. [Available from the authors].
“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.
“Learning By Doing in Law Enforcement” by Jeremy West.
“The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrest Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin Holz, Roman Rivera and Bocar Ba.
“Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes” by Emily Weisburst.
“A Cognitive View of Police Misconduct” by Oendrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah [Paper available from the authors].
“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police Officers” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.
Episode 73 of Probable Causation: Danila Serra.

Episode 89: Graeme Blair on community policing in the Global South

Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South.
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Community Policing, Chicago Style” by Wesley G. Skogan and Susan M. Hartnett.
“Impact Evaluation of the LAPD Community Safety Partnership” by Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, Jorja Leap, and P. Jeffrey Brantingham.
“Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing: Experiments on Building Trust” by Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. [Forthcoming book.]

Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violence

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago.
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, Caterina Gouvis Roman, Lindsay Bostwick, and Jeremy R. Porter.
“Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It” by Sara B Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh, and Max Kapustin.
“The Enhanced Transitional Jobs Demonstration: Implementation and Early Impacts of the Next Generation of Subsidized Employment Programs” by Cindy Redcross, Bret Barden, Dan Bloom, Joseph Broads, Jennifer Thompson, Sonya Williams, Sam Elkins, Randall Jurus, Janae Bonus, Ada Tso et al.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
“Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence” by Charles Branas, Shani Bugs, Jeffrey A. Butts, Anna Harvey, and Erin M. Kerrison.
“Advance Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report” by Jason Corburn and Amanda Fukutome.
“Implementation Evaluation of Roca, Inc.” by Abt Associates.
“Reaching and Connecting: Preliminary Results from Chicago CRED’s Impact on Gun Violence Involvement” by Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative.