Probable Causation

Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST)

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021.
“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.
"The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.
”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette.
"Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton.
“Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook.
"Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
"Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.
 

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST)

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.
"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST)

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.
"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao
"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose
"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie
"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger
"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave
"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung
"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio
"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen
"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Episode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountability

Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability.
“Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport.
“Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-Involved Gun Deaths” by Jay T. Jennings and Meghan E. Rubado.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
“Prosecutorial Reforms and Local Crime Rates” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
“Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration” by Ashna Arora.
“The Effect of DA Elections on Public Safety” by Dvir Yogev. [Working Paper available from the author].
“Does Prosecutor Partisanship Exacerbate the Racial Charging Gap? Evidence from District Attorneys in Three States” by Sidak Yntiso.

Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Women’s Access to the Labour Market and Domestic Violence: Causal Evidence from Mexico” by Manuel Davila.
“Family Types and Intimate Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective” by Ana Tur-Prats.
Episode 17 of Probable Causation: Ana Tur-Prats.
“A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries” by Ana Maria Buller, Amber Peterman, Meghan Ranganathan, Alexandra Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, and Lori Heise.
“Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries” by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez, and Claire Thibout.
“The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia” by Christopher Blattman and Stefan Dercon.
“Statistical Analysis of List Experiments” by Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai.
“The Comparative Impact of Cash Transfer and Psychotherapy on Psychological and Economic Well-being” by Johannes Haushofer, Robert Mudida, and Jeremy Shapiro.
“Backlash: Female Economic Empowerment and Domestic Violence” by Sanna Bergvall.
“Paid Work for Women and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the Rwanda Coffee Mills” by Deniz Sanin.
“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Draft available from the authors upon request].
Episode 85 of Probable Causation: Sofia Amaral.
“Cultural Distance and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Eleonora Guarnieri and Ana Tur-Prats.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
Episode 87 of Probable Causation: Emily Nix

Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs.
“Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely Unauthorized Parents” by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Esther Arenas-Arroyo, and Almudena Sevilla.
“Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and Personal Income Taxes After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” by Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis.
“Inside the Refrigerator: Immigration Enforcement and Chilling in Immigrant Medicaid Participation” by Tara Watson.
“Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs” by George Borjas and Lynette Hilton.
“Network Effects and Welfare Cultures” by Marianne Bertrand, Erzo Luttmer, and Sendhil Mullainathan.
“Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census” by J. David Brown, Misty Heggeness, Suzanne Dorinski, and Lawrence Warren.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
“Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime? Evidence from Secure Communities” by Thomas J. Miles and Adam B. Cox.
“Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: Household Services and High-Educated Mothers' Work” by Chloe East and Andrea Velasquez.
“The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement” by Chloe East, Philip Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velasquez.
“Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety” by Felipe Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily Weisburst. [Draft available from the authors].
“Immigration Enforcement and the Institutionalization of Elderly Americans” by Abdulmohsen Almuhaisen, Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, and Delia Furtado. [Draft available from the authors]
“Take-up and Targeting: Experimental Evidence from SNAP” by Amy Finkelstein and Matthew J. Notowidigdo.
“Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Subsidized Health Insurance Exchange” by Mark Shepard and Myles Wagner.
 

Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago

Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago.
“Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sciatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi.
“Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing” by Steven Levitt and Sudhir Allude Venkatesh.
“Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. [Unpublished Manuscript]
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City” by Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest, and Jacob Kaplan.
“The Effects of Civil Gang Injunctions on Reported Violent Crime: Evidence from Los Angeles County” by Jeffrey Grogger.
“Student Exposure to Proactive Policing: Heterogenous Effects of Los Angeles Gang Injunctions” by Jessica Wagner. [Available from the author upon request]

Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force

Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 38: CarlyWill Sloan.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer Jr.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force: A Comment” by Steven N. Durlauf and James J. Heckman.
“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” By Barak Ariel, Alex Sutherland, Darren Penstock, Josh Young, Paul Drove, Jayne Sykes, Simon Megicks, and Ryan Henderson.
“The “Less-Than-Lethal Weapons Effect”- Introducing TASERs to Routine Operations in England and Wales: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Barak Ariel, David Lawes, Cristobal Weinborn, Ron Henry, Kevin Chen, and Hagit Brants Sabo.
“American Policing and the Danger Imperative” by Michael Sierra-Arevalo.
“Racial Profiling and Use of Force in Police Stops: How Local Events Trigger Periods of Increased Discrimination” by Joscha Legewie.
“Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger.
“Exposure to Violence Predicts Impulsivity in Time Preferences: Evidence from The Democratic Republic of Congo” by Alex Imas, Michael Kuhn, and Vera Mironova. [Working Paper].
“Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya.
“Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War” by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez.
Probable Causation Episode 42: Andrea Velásquez.
“Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violence Behavior” by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl.
“Frustration, Euphoria, and Violent Crime” by Ignacio Munyo and Martin A. Rossi.
“Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles” by Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan.
“Nonfatal Injuries to Law Enforcement Officers: A Rise in Assaults” by Hope M. Tiesman, Melody Gwilliam, Srinivas Konda, Jeff Rojek, and Suzanne Marsh.
“Emotional Reactivity and Police Expertise in Use-of-Force Decision-Making” by Vivian Ta, Brian Lande, and Joel Suss.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests?: The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Conclaves, and Emily Weisburst.
“The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrests Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera.
“Police Officer Assignment and Neighborhood Crime” by Bocar Ba, Patrick Bayer, Nayoung Rim, Roman Rivera, and Modibo Sidibé.
“Strengthening Police Oversight: Impacts of Misconduct Investigators on Police Officer Behavior” by Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim.
“Does Black and Blue Matter? An Experimental Investigation of Race and Perceptions of Police, and Legal Compliance” by Mackenzie Alston and Emily Owens.
“High-Frequency Location Data Shows that Race Affects the Likelihood of Being Stopped and Fined for Speeding” by Pradhi Aggarwal, Alec Brandon, Ariel Goldszmidt, Justin Holz, John A. List, Ian Muir, Greg Sun, and Thomas Yu.

Episode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in Norway

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway.
“Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Mandeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

Bonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconduct

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!