Probable Causation

Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violence

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago.
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, Caterina Gouvis Roman, Lindsay Bostwick, and Jeremy R. Porter.
“Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It” by Sara B Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh, and Max Kapustin.
“The Enhanced Transitional Jobs Demonstration: Implementation and Early Impacts of the Next Generation of Subsidized Employment Programs” by Cindy Redcross, Bret Barden, Dan Bloom, Joseph Broads, Jennifer Thompson, Sonya Williams, Sam Elkins, Randall Jurus, Janae Bonus, Ada Tso et al.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
“Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence” by Charles Branas, Shani Bugs, Jeffrey A. Butts, Anna Harvey, and Erin M. Kerrison.
“Advance Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report” by Jason Corburn and Amanda Fukutome.
“Implementation Evaluation of Roca, Inc.” by Abt Associates.
“Reaching and Connecting: Preliminary Results from Chicago CRED’s Impact on Gun Violence Involvement” by Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative.

Episode 87: Emily Nix on violence against women at work

Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Market” by Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne.
“Incentives for Managers and Inequality Among Workers: Evidence from a Firm-Level Experiment” by Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Barankay, and Imran Rasul.
“What Drives Differences in Management Practices?” by Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and John Van Reenen.
“When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct” by Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru.
“Monitoring Harassment in Organizations” by Laura Boudreau, Sylvain Chassang, and Ada Gonzalez-Torres. [Working paper.]

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.
"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request.
"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.
"The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 3: Analisa Packham on syringe exchange programs (REBROADCAST)

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019.
"Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users” — World Health Organization report.
“Needle exchange programs and drug injection behavior” by Jeff DeSimone.
“Needle exchange programs: Research suggests promise as an AIDS prevention strategy” — GAO report.
“Syringe exchange programs around the world: The global context” — GMHC report.
“The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee

Episode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penalties

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system.
“The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes Harris, Heather Evans, and Katherine Beckett.
“Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. [Working paper.]
”Does Punishment Compel Payment? Driver’s License Suspensions and Fine Delinquency” by Ryan E. Kessler. [Working paper.]
“Disparate Fine Collection: Evidence using Chicago Parking Tickets” by Elizabeth Luh. [Working paper.]
“Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Learning from Law Enforcement” by Libor Dusek and Christian Traxler.
“Criminalizing Poverty: The Consequences of Court Fees in a Randomized Experiment” by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western.
“Measuring Child Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data” by Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Brittany Street.
“Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and EExpenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data” by Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. [Working paper available from the authors upon request.]
“The (Non)Economics of Criminal Fines and Fees” by Tyler Giles.
“A Proposal to End Regressive Taxation through Law Enforcement” by Michael Makowsky.
“Revenue-Motivated Law Enforcement: Evidence, Consequences, and Policy Solutions” by Michael Makowsky.

Episode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in India

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
[Working paper available from the authors.]
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Safety First: Perceived Risk of Street Harassment and Educational Choices of Women” by Girija Borker.
“Violence and Female Labor Supply” by Zahra Siddique.
“Demand for Safe Spaces: Avoiding Harassment and Stigma” by Florence Kondylis, Arianna Legovini, Kate Vyborny, Astrid Zwager, and Luiza Andrade.
“Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” by Erica Field and Kate Vyborny.

Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman.
“Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs.
“Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg.
“Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Episode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage line

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC.
“Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum.
Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
Episode 80 of Probable Causation: Thomas Dee.
Episode 77 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos.
“Ten Solutions for Emergency Department Crowding” by Robert W. Derlet and John R. Richards.
“A Randomized Control Trial Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.
Episode 78 of Probable Causation: Sandip Sukhtankar.
Episode 75 of Probable Causation: Panka Bencsik.
Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.

Episode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school quality

Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others.
“What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?” by Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Jonathan Schellenberg, and Christopher Walters.
“Why Do Households Leave School Value Added 'on the Table'? The Roles of Information and Preferences” by Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Miguel Urquiola.
“Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice” by Felipe Arteaga, Adam J Kapor, Christopher A Neilson, and Seth D Zimmerman.

Episode 81: Anita Mukherjee on how heat affects violence in prisons

Anita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons.
“The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Interpersonal Violence Associated with Hot Weather” by Rahini Mahendran, Rongbin Xu, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo.
“Heat and Violence" by Craig A. Anderson.
“Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-related Retaliation in Baseball” by Richard P. Larrick, Thomas A. Timmerman, Andrew M. Carton, and Jason Abrevaya.
“The Urban Crime and Heat Gradient in High and Low Poverty Areas” by Kilian Heilmann, Matthew E. Kahn, and Cheng Keat Tang.
“Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: The Effect of Gun Laws on Violent Crime” by Jonathan Colmer and Jennifer L. Doleac. [Working paper.]
“Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making Under Thermal Stress” by Ingvild Almas et al. [Working paper.]
“Keep the Kids Inside? Juvenile Curfews and Urban Gun Violence” by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
“Heat, Crime, and Punishment” by A. Patrick Behrer and Valentin Bolotnyy.