Probable Causation

Episode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penalties

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system.
“The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes Harris, Heather Evans, and Katherine Beckett.
“Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. [Working paper.]
”Does Punishment Compel Payment? Driver’s License Suspensions and Fine Delinquency” by Ryan E. Kessler. [Working paper.]
“Disparate Fine Collection: Evidence using Chicago Parking Tickets” by Elizabeth Luh. [Working paper.]
“Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Learning from Law Enforcement” by Libor Dusek and Christian Traxler.
“Criminalizing Poverty: The Consequences of Court Fees in a Randomized Experiment” by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western.
“Measuring Child Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data” by Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Brittany Street.
“Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and EExpenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data” by Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. [Working paper available from the authors upon request.]
“The (Non)Economics of Criminal Fines and Fees” by Tyler Giles.
“A Proposal to End Regressive Taxation through Law Enforcement” by Michael Makowsky.
“Revenue-Motivated Law Enforcement: Evidence, Consequences, and Policy Solutions” by Michael Makowsky.

Episode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in India

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
[Working paper available from the authors.]
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Safety First: Perceived Risk of Street Harassment and Educational Choices of Women” by Girija Borker.
“Violence and Female Labor Supply” by Zahra Siddique.
“Demand for Safe Spaces: Avoiding Harassment and Stigma” by Florence Kondylis, Arianna Legovini, Kate Vyborny, Astrid Zwager, and Luiza Andrade.
“Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” by Erica Field and Kate Vyborny.

Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman.
“Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs.
“Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg.
“Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Episode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage line

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC.
“Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum.
Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
Episode 80 of Probable Causation: Thomas Dee.
Episode 77 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos.
“Ten Solutions for Emergency Department Crowding” by Robert W. Derlet and John R. Richards.
“A Randomized Control Trial Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.
Episode 78 of Probable Causation: Sandip Sukhtankar.
Episode 75 of Probable Causation: Panka Bencsik.
Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.

Episode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school quality

Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others.
“What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?” by Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Jonathan Schellenberg, and Christopher Walters.
“Why Do Households Leave School Value Added 'on the Table'? The Roles of Information and Preferences” by Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Miguel Urquiola.
“Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice” by Felipe Arteaga, Adam J Kapor, Christopher A Neilson, and Seth D Zimmerman.

Episode 81: Anita Mukherjee on how heat affects violence in prisons

Anita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons.
“The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Interpersonal Violence Associated with Hot Weather” by Rahini Mahendran, Rongbin Xu, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo.
“Heat and Violence" by Craig A. Anderson.
“Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-related Retaliation in Baseball” by Richard P. Larrick, Thomas A. Timmerman, Andrew M. Carton, and Jason Abrevaya.
“The Urban Crime and Heat Gradient in High and Low Poverty Areas” by Kilian Heilmann, Matthew E. Kahn, and Cheng Keat Tang.
“Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: The Effect of Gun Laws on Violent Crime” by Jonathan Colmer and Jennifer L. Doleac. [Working paper.]
“Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making Under Thermal Stress” by Ingvild Almas et al. [Working paper.]
“Keep the Kids Inside? Juvenile Curfews and Urban Gun Violence” by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
“Heat, Crime, and Punishment” by A. Patrick Behrer and Valentin Bolotnyy.

Episode 80: Thomas Dee on sending health workers to 911 calls

Thomas Dee talks about the effects of dispatching health workers instead of police to some 911 calls.
“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Variation Across Police Response Models for Handling Encounters with People with Mental Illnesses: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis” by Chunghyeon Seo, Bitna Kim, and Nathan E. Kruis.
“Crisis Averted? The Effect of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Strickland. [Draft available from authors upon request]

Episode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings (REBROADCAST)

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020.
"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin.
"What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller
"More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.
“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.
“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.
“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.
“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.
“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.
“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.
“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Episode 79: Jenny Williams on electronic monitoring

Jenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration.
“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
“Early Release from Prison on Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: A Tale of Two Discontinuities” by Olivier Marie.
“Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey.
“Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: Quasi-Experimental Evidence form Norway” by Synøve Nygaard Andersen and Kjetil Telle.