Probable Causation

A show about law, economics, and crime.

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Episodes

Tuesday Aug 16, 2022

Sandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India.
“Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Brazil” by Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds.
“Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India” by Sofia Amaral, Sonia Bhalotra and Nishith Prakash. [Working paper available from the authors].
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair et al.

Tuesday Aug 02, 2022

Elizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers.
“Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Copenhagen Burnout Inventory: A New Tool for the Assessment of Burnout” by Tage S. Kristensen, Marianne Borritz, Ebbe Villadsen, and Karl B. Christensen.
“Understanding Burnout in Correctional Officers” by Jessie Harney and Elizabeth Linos
[Working paper available from the authors.]
Episode 43 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos

Tuesday Jul 19, 2022

Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence.
“Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The White/Black Educational Gap, Stalled Progress, and the Long-term Consequences of the Emergence of Crack Cocaine Markets” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.
“Youth Violence, Guns and the Illicit-drug Industry” by Alfred Blumstein.
Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Stephen Billings.
“The Emergence of Crack Cocaine and the Rise in Urban Crime Rates” by Jeff Grogger and Michael Willis.
“Measuring Crack Cocaine and its Impact” by Roland G. Fryer Jr., Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy.
“The Social Costs of Gun Ownership” by Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig.
“It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder” by Lena Edlund and Cecilia Machado.
“The Role of Gun Supply in 1980s and 1990s Youth Violence” by Wm. Alan Bartley and Geoffrey Williams.
“Firearms and Violence Under Jim Crow” by Michael D. Makowsky and Patrick L. Warren.
“The Emergence of the Crack Epidemic and City-to-Suburb Mobility Between and Within Ethno-Racial Groups” by Takuma Kamada.
“Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California” by Alessandro Flamini, Babak Jahanshahi, and Kamiar Mohaddes.
“Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply” by Timothy J. Moore & Kevin T. Schnepel.
Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.
Episode 27 of Probable Causation: Benjamin Hansen.
“Causes and Consequences of Illicit Drug Epidemics” by Timothy J. Moore and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula.

Tuesday Jul 05, 2022

Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey.
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey.
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel.
Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.
Episode 65 of Probable Causation: Felipe Goncalves.
“Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program Effects on Criminal Justice and Legal System Utilization and Costs” by Susan E. Collins, Heather S. Lonczak, & Seema L. Clifasefi.
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, and David C. Phillips.
Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

Tuesday Jun 21, 2022

Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates.
“The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack.
“Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy” by Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raudenbush, and Felton Earls.
“Social Interactions and Location Decisions: Evidence from U.S. Mass Migration” by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor (Forthcoming).
“Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration” by Ellora Derenoncourt.
Episode 36 of Probable Causation: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.

Tuesday Jun 07, 2022

Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana.
“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.
“Shaping Police Officer Mindsets and Behaviors: Experimental Evidence of Procedural Justice Training” by Rodrigo Canales et al.
“The Greater Manchester Police Procedural Justice Training Experiment” by Levin Wheller, Paul Quinton, Alistair Fildes, and Andy Mills.
“Can Police Training Reduce Ethnic/Racial Disparities in Stop and Search? Evidence from a Multisite UK Trial” by Joel Miller, Paul Quinton, Banos Alexandrou, and Daniel Packham.
“Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, and Andrew V. Papachristos.
Revised findings for “Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, Andrew V. Papachristos et al.
“Doing Research with Police Elites in Ghana” by Emmanuel Addo Sowatey and Justice Tankebe.
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Tuesday May 24, 2022

Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls” by Manasi Deshpande.
“Changing Circumstances: Experiences of Child SSI Recipients Before and After their Age-18 Redetermination for Adult Benefits” by Jeffrey Hemmeter, Jacqueline Kauff, and David Wittenburg.
“Longitudinal Patterns of Disability Program Participation and Mortality Across Childhood SSI Award Cohorts” by Kalman Rupp, Jeffrey Hemmeter, and Paul S. Davies.
“Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?” by Crystal S. Yang.
“Does Emergency Financial Assistance Reduce Crime?” by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.
Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome

Tuesday May 17, 2022

David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
 

Tuesday May 10, 2022

Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records.
“Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja B. Starr.
“The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan
“Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets” by Amanda Pallais.
“The Effects of Letters of Recommendation in the Youth Labor Market” by Sara B. Heller and Judd B. Kessler.

Tuesday Apr 26, 2022

Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil.
“De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” by Barak Ariel, et al.
“The Effects of Body-Worn Cameras on Police Activity and Police-Citizen Encounters: A
Randomized Controlled Trial” by Anthony Braga, et al.
“Body-worn Cameras’ Effects on Police Officers and Citizen Behavior: A Systematic Review” by Cynthia Lum, et al.
“Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, et al.
“How Body-worn Cameras Affect the Use of Gunshots , Stop-and Searches and Other Forms of Police Behavior: A Randomized Control Trial in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, Gustavo Robles, and Gustavo Empinotti [WORKING PAPER]
“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

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