Probable Causation

Bonus episode: Sarah Lageson on digital punishment

David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, "Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
 

Episode 68: Andrew Barr on nutritional assistance in early childhood

Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior.
“Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.
“Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes” by Douglas Almond, Hilary W. Hoynes, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“Consumption Responses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary W. Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“Long-run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net” by Hilary Hoynes, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Douglas Almond.
“Work Incentives and the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program” by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.
“Adult Outcomes as a Function of an Early Childhood Educational Program: An Abecedarian Project Follow-up” by Frances A Campbell, Elizabeth P Pungello, Margaret Burchinal, Kirsten Kainz, Yi Pan, Barbara H Wasik, Oscar A Barbarin, Joseph J Sparling, and Craig T Ramey.
“Breaking the Cycle? Intergenerational Effects of an Anti-Poverty Program in Early Childhood” by Andrew C. Barr and Chloe Gibbs.
“Long-term Effects of Nurse Home Visitation on Children's Criminal and Antisocial Behavior: 15-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Olds, Charles R. Henderson Jr, and Robert Cole.
“Longer-Term Effects of Head Start” by Eliana Garces, Duncan Thomas, and Janet Currie.
“Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start” by David Deming.
“The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s” by John Anders, Andrew C. Barr, and Alexander A. Smith.
“Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead” by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Steve Billings.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
“Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

Episode 66: Aaron Chalfin on what motivates police officers

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann.
“Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson.
“The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach” by Brian D. Kelly & Maureen Kole.
“The Ferguson Report: Department of Justice Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department” by Department of Justice.
“Pay, Reference Points, and Police Performance” by Alexandre Mas.
“Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform” by Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar Ba & Roman Rivera.
“Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer?” by Edith Linn.
“‘Drive and Wave': The Response to LAPD Police Reforms After Rampart” by Canice Pendergast.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of 'Pattern-or-Practice' Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 65: Felipe Goncalves on whether police make too many arrests

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello
“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, Robert Witt
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac & Anna Harvey
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
“Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy” by Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre Becerril and Morgan Williams Jr.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin & Felipe Goncalves

Episode 64: Jason Baron on foster care placement

Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact.
“Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.]
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Child Protection and Adult Crime: Using Investigator Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson and David Pozen.
“The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes” by Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine S. Hastings, and Margarita Machelett.
“Foster Care and Child Welfare” by Kelsey Roberts.
“Temporary Stays and Persistent Gains: The Causal Effects of Foster Care” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross.

Episode 63: Elizabeth Luh on detecting racial bias in police stops

Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops.
“Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nicola Persico, and Petra Todd.
“A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight.
“An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamina Anwar and Hanming Fang.
“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves and Steven Mello.
“Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway.
“Can Racial Bias in Policing Be Credibly Estimated Using Data Contaminated by Post-Treatment Selection?” by Dean Knox, Will Lowe, and Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.
 

Episode 62: Yotam Shem-Tov on restorative justice diversion programs

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
“The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco” by Elsa Augustine, Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, and Steven Raphael.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
Probable Causation, Episode 59: Kerri Raissian.
“Restorative Justice Conferences as an Early Response to Young Offenders” by Edmund F. McGarrell.
“Family Group Conferencing and Re-Offending Among First-Time Juvenile Offenders: The Indianapolis Experiment” by Edmun F. McGarrell and Natalie Kroovand Hipple.

Episode 61: Santiago Tobón on gang rule

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it.
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly.
“Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson.
“Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” by Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast.
“The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System” by David Skarbek.
“The Political Economy of Organized Crime: Providing Protection When the State Does Not” by Stergios Skaperdas.
“Gangs as Primitive States” by Stergios Skaperdas and Constantinos Syropoulos.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. (Working paper.)
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Working Paper.)
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development: The Role of Extortion in El Salvador” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
 

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.
”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.
“A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.
”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.
”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.
”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.
“Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.