Probable Causation

Episode 66: Aaron Chalfin on what motivates police officers

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann.
“Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson.
“The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach” by Brian D. Kelly & Maureen Kole.
“The Ferguson Report: Department of Justice Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department” by Department of Justice.
“Pay, Reference Points, and Police Performance” by Alexandre Mas.
“Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform” by Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar Ba & Roman Rivera.
“Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer?” by Edith Linn.
“‘Drive and Wave': The Response to LAPD Police Reforms After Rampart” by Canice Pendergast.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of 'Pattern-or-Practice' Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 65: Felipe Goncalves on whether police make too many arrests

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello
“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, Robert Witt
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac & Anna Harvey
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
“Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy” by Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre Becerril and Morgan Williams Jr.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin & Felipe Goncalves

Episode 64: Jason Baron on foster care placement

Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact.
“Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.]
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Child Protection and Adult Crime: Using Investigator Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson and David Pozen.
“The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes” by Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine S. Hastings, and Margarita Machelett.
“Foster Care and Child Welfare” by Kelsey Roberts.
“Temporary Stays and Persistent Gains: The Causal Effects of Foster Care” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross.

Episode 63: Elizabeth Luh on detecting racial bias in police stops

Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops.
“Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nicola Persico, and Petra Todd.
“A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight.
“An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamina Anwar and Hanming Fang.
“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves and Steven Mello.
“Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway.
“Can Racial Bias in Policing Be Credibly Estimated Using Data Contaminated by Post-Treatment Selection?” by Dean Knox, Will Lowe, and Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.
 

Episode 62: Yotam Shem-Tov on restorative justice diversion programs

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
“The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco” by Elsa Augustine, Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, and Steven Raphael.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
Probable Causation, Episode 59: Kerri Raissian.
“Restorative Justice Conferences as an Early Response to Young Offenders” by Edmund F. McGarrell.
“Family Group Conferencing and Re-Offending Among First-Time Juvenile Offenders: The Indianapolis Experiment” by Edmun F. McGarrell and Natalie Kroovand Hipple.

Episode 61: Santiago Tobón on gang rule

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it.
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly.
“Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson.
“Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” by Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast.
“The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System” by David Skarbek.
“The Political Economy of Organized Crime: Providing Protection When the State Does Not” by Stergios Skaperdas.
“Gangs as Primitive States” by Stergios Skaperdas and Constantinos Syropoulos.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. (Working paper.)
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Working Paper.)
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development: The Role of Extortion in El Salvador” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
 

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.
”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.
“A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.
”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.
”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.
”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.
“Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime (REBROADCAST)

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Bonus episode: Carissa Byrne Hessick on plea bargaining

David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
 

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.