Probable Causation

Episode 62: Yotam Shem-Tov on restorative justice diversion programs

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
“The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco” by Elsa Augustine, Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, and Steven Raphael.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
Probable Causation, Episode 59: Kerri Raissian.
“Restorative Justice Conferences as an Early Response to Young Offenders” by Edmund F. McGarrell.
“Family Group Conferencing and Re-Offending Among First-Time Juvenile Offenders: The Indianapolis Experiment” by Edmun F. McGarrell and Natalie Kroovand Hipple.

Episode 61: Santiago Tobón on gang rule

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it.
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly.
“Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson.
“Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” by Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast.
“The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System” by David Skarbek.
“The Political Economy of Organized Crime: Providing Protection When the State Does Not” by Stergios Skaperdas.
“Gangs as Primitive States” by Stergios Skaperdas and Constantinos Syropoulos.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. (Working paper.)
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Working Paper.)
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development: The Role of Extortion in El Salvador” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
 

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.
”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.
“A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.
”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.
”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.
”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.
“Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime (REBROADCAST)

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Bonus episode: Carissa Byrne Hessick on plea bargaining

David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
 

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Episode 59: Kerri Raissian on domestic violence courts

Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Love, Hate and Murder: Commitment Devices in Violent Relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó.
“Do Domestic Violence Courts Work? A Meta-Analytic Review Examining Treatment and Study Quality” by Leticia Gutierrez, Julie Blais, and Guy Bourgon.
“The Impact of Specialized Prosecution on the Safety of Domestic Violence Victims” by Ashna Arora, Xander Beberman, Zubin Jelveh, and Ashley Motta. (Available upon request from the authors.)
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Episode 58: Jennifer Doleac on DNA databases

Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.
“The Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime: Evidence from the Stockholm Subway” by Mikael Priks.
“The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime” by Santiago Gómez, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Tobón.
“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
Probable Causation Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
“Encouraging Desistance from Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.

Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni on predictive policing

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime.
“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brantingham, F.P. Schoenberg, and G.E. Tita.
“Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, Sean Malinowski, Mark Johnson, G.E. Tita, Andrea L. Bertozzi, and P.J. Brantingham.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer Doleac.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Anker, Jennifer Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.
“Police Officer on the Frontline or a Soldier? The Effect of Police Militarization on Crime” by Vincenzo Bove and Evelina Gavrilova.
“Peacekeeping Force: Effects of Providing Tactical Equipment to Local Law Enforcement” by Matthew C. Harris, Jinseong Park, Donald J. Bruce, and Matthew N. Murray.
“Police Safety, Killings by the Police, and the Militarization of US Law Enforcement” by Federico Masera.
“Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Episode 56: Gaurav Khanna on employment and crime in Colombia

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird.
“Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming).
“Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti.
“Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos.
“Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía.
“Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler.
“Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.).
“Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo.
“Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew.
“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio.
“Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi.