Probable Causation

Episode 49: Michael Makowsky on the minimum wage, EITC, and recidivism

Michael Makowsky talks about how increasing hourly wages, through the minimum wage and EITC, affects recidivism.
"The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism" by Amanda Agan and Michael Makowsky.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.
"Impacts of minimum wages: review of the international evidence" by Arindrajit Dube.
"Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?" By David Neumark and Peter Shirley.
"The Minimum Wage and Crime" by Andrew Beauchamp and Stacey Chan.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac.
"The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers" by Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Wither.
"Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics" by Jonathan Meer and Jeremy West.
"Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies" by Sylvia Allegreto, Arindrajit Dube, Michael Reich, and Ben Zipperer.
"Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?" by William H. Dow, Anna Godøy, Christopher A. Lowenstein, and Michael Reich.
"Jobs, News and Reoffending after Incarceration" by Roberto Galbiati, Aurélie Ouss, and Arnaud Philippe.
"Understanding 'Wage Theft': Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases" by Jeffrey Clemens and Michael R. Strain.
"Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
Probable Causation Episode 5: Kevin Schnepel.
Probable Causation Bonus Episode 6: David Skarbek.

Episode 48: Cody Tuttle on SNAP benefits and recidivism

Cody Tuttle talks about how banning people with criminal records from receiving SNAP benefits affects recidivism.
"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Capitalizing on Nonrandom Assignment to Treatments: A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of a Crime-Control Program” by Richard A. Berk and David Rauma.
“Crime and Poverty: Some Experimental Evidence From Ex-Offenders.” by Richard A. Berk, Kenneth J. Lenihan, and Peter H. Rossi.
“Transitional Aid for Released Prisoners: Evidence from the Life Experiment” by Charles D. Mallar and Craig V.D. Thornton.
“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.
"Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998" by Michael F. Lovenheim and Emily G. Owens.
"First-day criminal recidivism" by Ignacio Munyo and Martín A. Rossi.
"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian Carr & Analisa Packham.
Probable Causation Episode 28: Jillian Carr.
"Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.
“A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Public Assistance on Prisoner Recidivism.” by Jeremy Luallen, Jared Edgerton, and Deirdre Rabideau.
"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David Phillips, and James Sullivan.
Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips.
"The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism" by Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
"No Credit For Time Served? Incarceration and Credit-Driven Crime Cycles" by Abhay Aneja and Carlos Avenancio-Leon.

Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles.
“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.
"The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.
”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette.
"Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton.
“Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook.
"Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
"Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.
 

Bonus episode: Erin Kelly on punishment and responsibility

David Eil talks with Erin Kelly about her book, "The Limits of Blame: Rethinking Punishment and Responsibility."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER ITEMS WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Judge statement in sentencing of Larry Nasser

Episode 46: Anna Harvey on reducing racial disparities in crime victimization

Anna Harvey talks about how court-ordered affirmative action in police departments affected racial disparities in crime victimization.
“Reducing Racial Disparities in Crime Victimization: Evidence from Employment Discrimination Litigation” by Anna Harvey and Taylor Mattia.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.
"COPS and crime" by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
"Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime" by Jonathan Klick and Alexander Tabarrok.
"The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates" by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Tom Kirchmaier.
"The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform
Crime Reports" by Steven Levitt.
"The Effect of Court-Ordered Hiring Quotas on the Composition and Quality of Police" by Justin McCrary.
"Does Temporary Affirmative Action Produce Persistent Effects? A Study of Black and Female Employment in Law Enforcement" by Amalia R. Miller and Carmit Segal.
"Do Female Officers Improve Law Enforcement Quality? Effects on Crime Reporting and Domestic Violence" by Amalia R. Miller and Carmit Segal.
"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.

Episode 45: Conrad Miller on racial disparities in sentencing

Conrad Miller talks about how local racial composition affects punishment severity in the criminal justice system.
"Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts" by Benjamin Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions” by Alberto Alesina, Reza Baqir, and William Easterly.
“Reassessing the Racial Divide in Support for Capital Punishment: The Continuing Significance of Race” by James Unnever and Francis Cullen.
“Racial Disparities in Incarceration Increase Acceptance of Punitive Policies” by Rebecca C. Hetey and Jennifer L. Eberhardt.
“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.
Probable Causation Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi
"Local Crime News Bias: Extent, Causes and Consequences" by Jonathan Moreno-Medina.
"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt
"Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences" by M. Marit Rehavi and Sonja B. Starr.
"A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing" by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
"Racial Disparities in the Acquisition of Juvenile Arrest Records" by Steven Raphael and Sandra V. Rozo.
"If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions" by Alex Albright.

Bonus episode: Sarah Brayne on police surveillance

David Eil talks with Sarah Brayne about her book, "Predict and Surveil: Data, Discretion, and the Future of Policing."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi on how local news coverage affects policing

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing.
"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.
***
Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
“Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to Fox News Channel” by Elliott Ash and Michael Poyker.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and sentencing" by Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Phillippe.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar A. Ba and Roman Rivera.
“Intensified Scrutiny and Bureaucratic Effort: Evidence from Policing After High-Profile, Officer-Involved Fatalities” by Deepak Premkumar.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of ‘Pattern-or Practice’ Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi and Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers.
"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime (REBROADCAST)

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019.
"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.
"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.
"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.
"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.
"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.
"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.
"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.