Probable Causation

Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte on after-school programs in El Salvador

Lelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador.
"Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence from El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte and Pablo Egana-delSol
"Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte [Draft available from the author upon request.]
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"After-School Programs for Delinquency Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis" by Sema A. Taheri and Brandon C. Welsh.
"What Works to Prevent Violence Among Youth? A White Paper on Youth Violence, Crime Prevention, and the Mexican Context" by Thomas Abt, Chris Blattman, Beatriz Magaloni, and Santiago Tobon.
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia" by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
"Peer Effects, Teacher Incentives, and the Impact of Tracking: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Kenya" by Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, and Michael Kremer
“The Benefits of Diversity: Peer Effects in an Adult Training Program in Chile” by Jeanne Lafortune, Marcela Perticará, and José Tessada.
"Predicting and Preventing Shootings among At-Risk Youth" by Dana Chandler, Steven D. Levitt, and John A. List.
"Partners in Crime" by Stephen Billings, David Deming, and Stephen L. Ross.

Episode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook.
"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin.
"What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller
"More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries.
"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.
The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.
Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.
Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan.
Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew.
The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr.
The Impact of Megan’s Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by
Grant Duwe and William Donnay.
The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman.
Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair.
Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba.
Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman.
Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba.
Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall.
A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan.
Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia.
Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin.
Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy.
“Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris.
Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings.
A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba.
The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker.
Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz.
Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba
An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.

Episode 19: Jeremy West on racial bias in police investigations

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations.
"Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd.
"An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang.
"A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics and Brian Knight
"Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness" by Jeffrey Grogger & Greg Ridgeway
"How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling" by William Horrace and Shawn Rohlin.
"Endogenous Driving Behavior in Veil of Darkness Tests for Racial Profiling" by Jesse Kalinowski, Stephen L. Ross, and Matthew B. Ross.
"Learning the ropes: General experience, task-Specific experience, and the output of police officers" by Gregory DeAngelo and Emily G. Owens.
"Police Officer Experience and Racial Bias in Traffic Stops" by William Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, and Shawn Rohlin.
"Learning by Doing in Law Enforcement" by Jeremy West.
"Dirty Business: Principal-Agent Problems in Hazardous Waste Remediation" by Justin Marion and Jeremy West.
"Free at Last? Judicial Discretion and Racial Disparities in Federal Sentencing" by Crystal S. Yang.

Episode 18: Maya Rossin-Slater on the effects of violent assault during pregnancy

Maya Rossin-Slater talks about how violent assault during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and infant health.
"Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Poverty, violence, and health the impact of domestic violence during pregnancy on newborn health" by Anna Aizer.
"Birth outcomes for Arabic-named women in California before and after September 11" by Diane S. Lauderdale.
"Stress and birth weight: evidence from terrorist attacks" by Adriana Camacho.
"Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada" by Hani Mansour and Daniel I. Rees.
"Prenatal exposure to violence and birth weight in Mexico: Selectivity, exposure, and behavioral responses" Florencia Torche and Andrés Villarreal.
"The hidden costs of war: Exposure to armed conflict and birth outcomes" by Florencia Torche and Uri Shwed.
Episode 9 of Probable Causation: Michael Mueller-Smith
"Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel.

Episode 17: Ana Tur-Prats on how historical family types affect intimate partner violence today

Ana Tur-Prats talks about how historical family types affect present-day intimate partner violence.
"Family Types and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective" by Ana Tur-Prats.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Domestic Violence: A Nonrandom Affair” by Helen V. Tauchen, Ann Dryden Witte, and Sharon K. Long.
“Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals” by Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler.
“Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law: Divorce Laws and Family Distress” by Betsy Stevenson and Justin Wolfers,
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Love on the Rocks: Domestic Violence and Alcohol Abuse in Rural Mexico” by Manuela Angelucci.
“Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control” by Gustavo Bobonis, Melissa Gonzalez-Brenes. and Roberto Castro.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Violence Against Women: A Cross-Cultural Analysis for Africa” by Alberto Alesina, Benedetta Brioschi, and Eliana La Ferrara.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsadam and Espen Villanger.
“Female Empowerment and Male Backlash” by Eleonora Guarnieri Helmut Rainer.
Unemployment and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Cultural Approach by Ana Tur-Prats.
“Bride Price and Female Education” by Nava Ashraf, Natalie Bar, Nathan Nunn, and Alessandra Voena.
“Customary Norms, Inheritance, and Human Capital: Evidence from a Reform of the Matrilineal System in Ghana” by Eliana La Ferrara and Annamaria Milazzo.
“Can Policy Change Culture? Government Pension Plans and Traditional Kinship Practices” by Natalie Bau.
“Cultural Norms and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Ana Tur-Prats and Eleonora Guarnieri.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead.
"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.
"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.
"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.
"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.
"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.
"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.
"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

Coming soon: Interviews with book authors

Host Jennifer Doleac talks with David Eil about a new Probable Causation feature: interviews with book authors.

Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi on the effects of criminal gangs in El Salvador

Mica Sviatschi talks about the effects of criminal gangs on economic development in El Salvador.
"Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development" by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Draft available from the authors upon request.)
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Legitimacy in Criminal Governance: Managing a Drug Empire from Behind Bars” by Benjamin Lessing and Graham D. Willis.
"The Logic of Violence in Drug Wars: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia" by Benjamin Lessing.
“Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Edgar Franco Vivanco, and Vanessa Melo.
The Gangs that Cost 16% of GDP
“Micro-Extortion by Gangs is Costing El Salvador Millions of Dollars a Year, $10 at a Time” by Molly O’Toole.
“Gang Rule: An Experiment in Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. (Draft not yet available).
“The Costs of Crime and Violence: New Evidence and Insights in Latin America and the Caribbean” edited by Laura Jaitman.