Probable Causation

Episode 18: Maya Rossin-Slater on the effects of violent assault during pregnancy

Maya Rossin-Slater talks about how violent assault during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and infant health.
"Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Poverty, violence, and health the impact of domestic violence during pregnancy on newborn health" by Anna Aizer.
"Birth outcomes for Arabic-named women in California before and after September 11" by Diane S. Lauderdale.
"Stress and birth weight: evidence from terrorist attacks" by Adriana Camacho.
"Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada" by Hani Mansour and Daniel I. Rees.
"Prenatal exposure to violence and birth weight in Mexico: Selectivity, exposure, and behavioral responses" Florencia Torche and Andrés Villarreal.
"The hidden costs of war: Exposure to armed conflict and birth outcomes" by Florencia Torche and Uri Shwed.
Episode 9 of Probable Causation: Michael Mueller-Smith
"Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel.

Episode 17: Ana Tur-Prats on how historical family types affect intimate partner violence today

Ana Tur-Prats talks about how historical family types affect present-day intimate partner violence.
"Family Types and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective" by Ana Tur-Prats.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Domestic Violence: A Nonrandom Affair” by Helen V. Tauchen, Ann Dryden Witte, and Sharon K. Long.
“Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals” by Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler.
“Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law: Divorce Laws and Family Distress” by Betsy Stevenson and Justin Wolfers,
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Love on the Rocks: Domestic Violence and Alcohol Abuse in Rural Mexico” by Manuela Angelucci.
“Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control” by Gustavo Bobonis, Melissa Gonzalez-Brenes. and Roberto Castro.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Violence Against Women: A Cross-Cultural Analysis for Africa” by Alberto Alesina, Benedetta Brioschi, and Eliana La Ferrara.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsadam and Espen Villanger.
“Female Empowerment and Male Backlash” by Eleonora Guarnieri Helmut Rainer.
Unemployment and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Cultural Approach by Ana Tur-Prats.
“Bride Price and Female Education” by Nava Ashraf, Natalie Bar, Nathan Nunn, and Alessandra Voena.
“Customary Norms, Inheritance, and Human Capital: Evidence from a Reform of the Matrilineal System in Ghana” by Eliana La Ferrara and Annamaria Milazzo.
“Can Policy Change Culture? Government Pension Plans and Traditional Kinship Practices” by Natalie Bau.
“Cultural Norms and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Ana Tur-Prats and Eleonora Guarnieri.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead.
"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.
"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.
"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.
"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.
"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.
"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.
"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

Coming soon: Interviews with book authors

Host Jennifer Doleac talks with David Eil about a new Probable Causation feature: interviews with book authors.

Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi on the effects of criminal gangs in El Salvador

Mica Sviatschi talks about the effects of criminal gangs on economic development in El Salvador.
"Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development" by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Draft available from the authors upon request.)
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Legitimacy in Criminal Governance: Managing a Drug Empire from Behind Bars” by Benjamin Lessing and Graham D. Willis.
"The Logic of Violence in Drug Wars: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia" by Benjamin Lessing.
“Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Edgar Franco Vivanco, and Vanessa Melo.
The Gangs that Cost 16% of GDP
“Micro-Extortion by Gangs is Costing El Salvador Millions of Dollars a Year, $10 at a Time” by Molly O’Toole.
“Gang Rule: An Experiment in Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. (Draft not yet available).
“The Costs of Crime and Violence: New Evidence and Insights in Latin America and the Caribbean” edited by Laura Jaitman.

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime.
"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 12: Michael Lovenheim on grade retention and students' criminal activity

Michael Lovenheim talks about how grade retention affects students' later criminal activity.
"The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence From a Test-Based Promotion Policy" by Ozkan Eren, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Naci H. Mocan.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“In school and out of trouble: The minimum dropout age and juvenile crime” by D. Mark Anderson.
“The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti.
“Priceless: The nonpecuniary benefits of schooling” by Philip Oreopolous and Kjell G. Salvanes.
“The crime reducing effect of education” by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Sunčica Vujić.
“Compulsory education and the benefits of schooling” by Melvin Stephens Jr.and Dou-Yan Yang.
“Better schools, less crime?” by David Deming.
“The effect of school choice on participants: Evidence from randomized lotteries” by Julie Berry Cullen, Brian A. Jacob, and Steven Levitt.
“The effect of grade retention on high school completion” by Brian A. Jacob and Lars Lefgren.
“How the timing of grade retention affects outcomes: Identification and estimation of time-varying treatment effects” by Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Salvador Navarro, and Yuya Takahashi.
“Grade retention, postsecondary education, and public aid receipt” by Suh-Ruu Ou and Arthur J. Reynolds.
“The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida” by Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters.
“Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime” by Ozkan Eren, Briggs Depew, and Stephen Barnes.
“Breaking bad: Mechanisms of social influence and the path to criminality in juvenile jails” by Megan Stevenson.

Episode 11: Steven Raphael on sentencing reform in California

Steven Raphael talks about how California's sentencing reform policies have affected incarceration and crime rates in the state.
"The effect of sentencing reform on crime rates: Evidence from California’s Proposition 47" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Public Safety Realignment and Crime Rates in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
"Is Public Safety Realignment Reducing Recidivism in California?" by Magnus Lofstrom, Steven Raphael, and Ryken Gratett.
"Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
“Prison Downsizing and Public Safety" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.
“Incarceration and Incapacitation: Evidence from the 2006 Italian Collective Pardon” by Paolo Buonanno and Steven Raphael. 
“Can We Downsize our Prisons and Jails without Compromising Public Safety? Findings from California’s Prop 47” by Bradley Bartos and Charis E. Kubrin.
"An Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Case Dispositions and Sentencing Outcomes for Criminal Cases Presented to and Processed by the Office of the San Francisco District Attorney" by John MacDonald & Steven Raphael.

Episode 10: Emily Weisburst on police officers in schools

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools.
"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.
"Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.
"Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.
"Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.
"Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.